When is the Sue Gray report due and what might it imply for Boris Johnson? | Gray report

The full Sue Gray report into lockdown-breaching gatherings in and round Downing Street might be revealed as early as Tuesday. Here is what we find out about its possible contents – and their influence.

What is the report?

This is the ultimate model of the report led by Gray, a senior Cabinet Office official, who was requested by Boris Johnson to uncover details concerning the events. An preliminary, 12-page model was revealed on the finish of January, with the remainder delayed as a result of the Metropolitan police had begun their very own, parallel inquiry. That was accomplished on Thursday, and Gray can now ship No 10 a way more thorough model, which is more likely to identify some officers at fault and will embrace pictures.

When is it coming?

We don’t know, however it’s more likely to be Tuesday or Wednesday. It is anticipated this week, and Johnson has promised to replace MPs swiftly after it’s revealed. The Commons is paying tributes to the Queen on Thursday, after which goes into per week of recess, so it’s possible earlier than then. The anticipated – however not confirmed – chronology is that Gray would ship her report back to No 10 within the morning, and it will be revealed by Downing Street quickly after, with Johnson addressing MPs that afternoon.

What will it say?

That is the large query. There have been some nameless briefings on what may come, however it’s on no account sure that any have come from Gray’s group. The interim report, whereas gentle on element, was strongly important of management and judgment inside No 10, and it’s honest to say that nothing to emerge since then would make such a verdict unlikely once more. According to the Sunday Times, Gray has mentioned she was shocked Johnson was solely fined as soon as by the police, and believes he was answerable for different wrongdoing.

Who is perhaps named?

The report is anticipated to call two dozen or so senior employees, alongside Johnson, in its description of what went incorrect. Among these possible be recognized embrace Simon Case, the cupboard secretary and head of the civil service; Martin “Party Marty” Reynolds, Johnson’s former principal non-public secretary, who despatched No 10 employees an e-mail inviting them to “bring your own booze” to a drinks occasion on 20 May 2020; and Helen MacNamara, who was head of ethics on the Cabinet Office.

Who might be blamed?

It appears possible that Gray will – as she did in her interim report – level to a combination of institutional failings and an absence of management inside No 10. This would very a lot implicate Johnson, as he’s in final management, nevertheless it stays to be seen if the fuller report will level to others appearing with out the MP’s information. Some reviews have recommended Case might be used as a scapegoat by Downing Street as soon as the report is out.

What will the influence be for Johnson?

That is the important thing political query. For months, Conservative MPs sad along with his tenure as PM have mentioned they needed to attend for each the tip of the police inquiry and Gray’s full report earlier than deciding whether or not to hunt a confidence vote in his management. However, the size of the police inquiry, and the very fact Johnson was – to the shock of many attorneys – fined solely as soon as for lockdown breaches, has taken the wind out of a lot of the revolt. It would take some notably damning passages, or images, to immediate a concerted revolt. That mentioned, a harmful report adopted by Tory losses in subsequent month’s byelections in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton might rebuild momentum for change.

Is the report Johnson’s final party-based hurdle?

No. The Commons privileges committee will study whether or not Johnson misled parliament when he initially mentioned he had no information of events and that he was assured all lockdown guidelines had been adopted. While the conference is {that a} prime minister who misleads parliament is anticipated to resign, Johnson is no fan of parliamentary conference. He says he didn’t intentionally mislead MPs, and intent may be exhausting to show. Perhaps extra sinister for him is the prediction by Dominic Cummings, his former chief aide, that pictures will quickly emerge which can show Johnson lied about events.

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